Europe Faces Critical Land Use Decisions as Agricultural Space Shrinks by 8 Million Hectares

2026-01-16 green

Wageningen, Saturday, 17 January 2026.
Without new sustainability policies, the European Union could lose over 8 million hectares of agricultural land by 2050 due to urbanization and farm closures, according to comprehensive Wageningen University research commissioned by the European Commission. The study reveals stark regional differences in land pressure, with Northwest Europe facing intense competition between housing, infrastructure, and food production, while Mediterranean regions struggle with irrigation demands and tourism expansion. This research provides policymakers with detailed scenarios ranging from business-as-usual to Green Deal ambitions, analyzing impacts on emissions, water quality, soil health, and food security across all 27 EU member states.

Regional Disparities Drive Land Competition Across Europe

The Wageningen University & Research study, conducted in partnership with the European Commission’s DG Agriculture, reveals significant regional variations in land use pressures across the continent [1]. Northwest European regions including the Netherlands, Flanders, and parts of Germany face particularly intense competition as agricultural land comes under pressure from housing and infrastructure development [1]. Meanwhile, Mediterranean coastal regions such as Andalusia and the Levante confront different challenges, where intensive irrigation farming competes with expanding tourism infrastructure [1]. Dr. Berien Elbersen, senior researcher in land use changes and environment at Wageningen University, emphasizes that ‘there is no one-size-fits-all solution for European land use dilemmas’ [1].

Comprehensive Scenario Analysis Reveals Policy Impact

The research team analyzed multiple scenarios ranging from business-as-usual approaches to policies aligned with the European Green Deal and Farm-to-Fork initiatives [1]. Elbersen explained that the study examined emissions, water quality, soil conditions, pesticide use, land loss, and production capacity as an integrated system, stating that ‘precisely in this comprehensive approach lies the great added value of this research, and the key for the future’ [1]. The analysis extends through 2050 and covers all 27 EU member states at the regional level, linking historical land use data to future projections [1]. This methodology allows policymakers to understand how different policy choices affect agricultural sustainability, biodiversity conservation, and food security simultaneously.

Wageningen researchers are advancing beyond traditional sustainability metrics through their BRIGHTSPACE project, which maps the ‘safe and just operating space’ of European agriculture [6]. Marc Müller, working with international research partners, aims to translate this principle into integrated models that combine ecological and social indicators to inform policy decisions [6]. The framework considers farmers’ income, market position, food affordability for consumers, access to healthy nutrition, animal welfare, and preservation of recreational landscapes as essential social boundaries for sustainable agriculture [6]. Hans van Meijl, senior economist at Wageningen Social & Economic Research, warns that ‘if we continue to increase greenhouse gas emissions, we will inevitably exceed the earth’s boundaries,’ while emphasizing that ‘if people are hungry, living in deep poverty, or affected by conflicts, there is no room to think about ecological boundaries’ [6].

Economic Performance Amid Transition Pressures

Despite mounting sustainability pressures, Dutch agricultural exports demonstrate the sector’s continued economic significance, with 2025 generating a net trade surplus of €42.4 billion [5]. Total agricultural exports from the Netherlands reached €137.5 billion in 2025, representing a 8.4 percent increase compared to 2024 [5]. LTO chairman Ger Koopmans attributes this growth to sustained international appreciation for Dutch agricultural products, noting that ‘Dutch food production contributes to European food security in these geopolitically complicated times’ [5]. However, he cautions that price increases primarily result from inflation and rising production costs due to stricter regulations and higher labor costs, while farm-gate revenues show minimal improvement [5]. The upcoming February 4, 2026 symposium at Wageningen University will address these challenges facing young farmers, featuring European Commission officials and regional policymakers discussing sustainable transition pathways [2][3].

Bronnen

sustainable agriculture land use optimization