Europe Faces Loss of 8 Million Hectares of Farmland Without Policy Changes
Wageningen, Saturday, 24 January 2026.
Wageningen University research reveals Europe could lose over 8 million hectares of agricultural land by 2050 without enhanced sustainability policies. This represents 5% of total EU farmland, threatened by urbanization and farming abandonment. The study emphasizes regional differences require tailored approaches rather than uniform solutions across Europe.
Comprehensive Analysis Maps European Land Use Pressures
The research, commissioned by the European Commission’s DG Agriculture, examined all 27 EU member states by linking historical land use data from past decades to scenarios extending to 2050 [1][2][3][4]. Wageningen University & Research combined European datasets on land use and change, information on agricultural systems, forests, nature, and urbanization with model calculations to create a comprehensive assessment [3]. Dr. Berien Elbersen, senior researcher in land use changes and environment at Wageningen University, explained the methodology: “We calculated various scenarios, from ‘business as usual’ to a scenario aligned with the Green Deal and Farm-to-Fork ambitions. We examined emissions, water quality, soil, pesticide use, land loss, and production capacity” [1][4]. The study’s integrated approach represents a significant advancement in understanding how Europe should allocate scarce space between food production, nature conservation, energy generation, housing, and infrastructure [1].
Regional Variations Demand Tailored Policy Solutions
The analysis reveals stark regional differences across Europe that require distinct policy approaches rather than uniform solutions. In Northwest Europe, including the Netherlands, Flanders, and Germany, intensive livestock farming faces mounting pressure from urbanization and infrastructure development [1][4][5]. The research demonstrates how agricultural land in these regions experiences stress from housing construction while dealing with ongoing debates over nitrogen emissions and water quality [5]. Mediterranean coastal regions present entirely different challenges, where agriculture, nature, urban growth, and tourism compete intensively for both land and water resources [4][5]. In areas such as Andalusia and the Levante in Spain, irrigation agriculture occupies relatively little space but delivers high added value, while urbanization and tourism simultaneously strain agricultural land and water supplies [4][5]. Elbersen emphasized the need for region-specific approaches: “There is no one-size-fits-all solution for the dilemmas regarding European land use. We believe, and have now scientifically substantiated, that EU policy can be more strongly focused on regional differences” [1][4].
Rural Exodus Creates Opportunities for Sustainable Agriculture
In contrast to urbanization pressures, regions experiencing rural exodus, particularly in inland Spain and Eastern Europe, face land abandonment challenges that create different opportunities [3][4]. The study projects that sustainable agriculture in these areas, including High Nature Value systems and biomass production, can contribute significantly to biodiversity goals, climate objectives, and rural livelihoods through 2050 [3]. Research indicates that while agricultural land is sometimes abandoned in these regions, construction and infrastructure continue to increase in other areas, highlighting the need for coordinated spatial planning [4]. Elbersen noted that “spatial planning, agricultural policy, nature restoration, climate policy, and even migration policy should be better coordinated” to address these disparate regional trends [1][4]. The analysis suggests that targeted measures in these depopulating rural areas could achieve substantial environmental and climate benefits while maintaining food production and rural quality of life [4].
Revolutionary Wadden Sea Impact Assessment Launched
Simultaneously, Wageningen Marine Research has developed the first complete Cumulative Impact Analysis for the Wadden Sea, commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Food Security and Nature [2]. This groundbreaking analysis uses the Spatial Cumulative Assessment of Impact Risk for Management (SCAIRM) method to systematically map how multiple human activities collectively impact this UNESCO World Heritage site [2]. Gerjan Piet, marine ecologist at Wageningen Marine Research, explained the significance: “This is the first analysis where available information has been used systematically. This cumulative impact analysis primarily shows where the greatest risks accumulate” [2]. The analysis reveals that fish and bottom-dwelling animals experience the highest cumulative risk, while pressure on the water column where plankton lives appears relatively low [2]. The spatial analysis demonstrates clear differences between basin areas of the Wadden Sea, enabling policymakers to target risk reduction measures more effectively [2]. This tool will serve as a foundation for the Nature Policy Framework Wadden Sea and may be expanded with new data and future scenarios [2].