NASA Grapples with Worsening Air Leak on International Space Station
International Space Station, Monday, 30 September 2024.
A persistent air leak in the International Space Station’s Russian segment has escalated to NASA’s highest risk level. The leak rate has increased significantly since February, prompting concerns about long-term mission sustainability and safety. NASA and Roscosmos are collaborating to investigate the issue, which may require closing a docking port if unresolved.
History of the Leak
The air leak was first identified in September 2019 in the PrK module, which connects the ISS’s Russian segment to a docking port[1]. Initially, the leak was manageable, but it has worsened over time. By February 2024, the leak rate was under 1 pound of atmosphere per day, but it surged to 3.7 pounds per day by April 2024, marking a critical escalation[2]. This increase has heightened NASA’s and Roscosmos’s concerns regarding the structural integrity and long-term viability of the ISS.
Current Mitigation Strategies
To address the leak, NASA and Roscosmos have focused their investigation on internal and external welds, though the root cause remains elusive[3]. One immediate mitigation strategy involves keeping the hatch on the Zvezda module, which leads to the PrK tunnel, closed. This action could reduce the number of available Russian docking ports from four to three if the leak continues to worsen[1].
Risk Assessment and Management
NASA’s inspector general report classifies this issue as a ‘5x5’ on the agency’s risk matrix, indicating the highest level of concern in terms of both likelihood and consequence[4]. In May and June 2024, NASA and Roscosmos officials met to discuss the increasing leak rate, underscoring the urgency of the situation[1]. The report also suggests that Roscosmos is confident they can monitor and close the hatch before the leak becomes untenable, but no clear agreement has been reached on what constitutes an ‘untenable’ leak rate[5].
Future Implications for the ISS
The worsening leak poses significant challenges for the future of the ISS. NASA and Russia have an agreement to operate the ISS through 2028, with the possibility of extending operations to 2030[1]. However, extending the ISS beyond 2030 would require substantial funding, acceptance of increased risks, and continued support from international partners. Supply chain issues and a potentially flat or reduced NASA budget further complicate this scenario[4].
Transition to Private Space Stations
As the ISS nears the end of its operational life, NASA is planning to transition activities to private space stations. The agency has already funded companies like Axiom Space, Blue Origin, and Voyager Space to develop these future platforms[1]. This transition aims to ensure continued human presence in low Earth orbit, even as the ISS faces growing challenges.