Europe Faces Crisis as 8 Million Hectares of Farmland Could Disappear by 2050

2026-01-31 green

Wageningen, Saturday, 31 January 2026.
New European Commission research reveals agricultural land across the EU could shrink by over 8 million hectares within 25 years without policy intervention. The comprehensive study by Wageningen University analyzed competing pressures from urbanization, nature conservation, and energy projects across all 27 member states. While Dutch farmland prices have skyrocketed 60% in a decade to €95,400 per hectare, researchers warn that regional solutions are essential since no single approach works across Europe’s diverse landscapes from intensive Netherlands farms to Mediterranean coastal regions.

Regional Variations Drive Land Use Tensions

The Wageningen University & Research study, commissioned by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Agriculture, examined all 27 EU member states by analyzing historical land use data and creating scenarios extending to 2050 [1][2]. The research considered multiple competing demands including agriculture, nature conservation, urban expansion, infrastructure development, and energy or biomass production [1][2]. Berien Elbersen, senior researcher for land use changes and environment at Wageningen University, emphasized the complexity of the challenge: “We calculated various scenarios, from ‘business as usual’ to a scenario in line with the Green Deal and Farm-to-Fork ambitions. We looked at emissions, water quality, soil, pesticide use, land loss and production capacity” [1][2]. The study’s integrated approach reveals significant regional differences across Europe, with Northwest European regions including the Netherlands, Flanders, and Germany facing particular pressure from intensive livestock farming combined with urbanization [1][2]. Meanwhile, Mediterranean coastal areas such as Andalusia and the Levante experience intense competition between agriculture, nature, urban growth, and tourism for both land and water resources [1][2].

Dutch Farmland Prices Surge Amid Scarcity

The pressure on European agricultural land has manifested dramatically in Dutch farmland prices, which reached €95,400 per hectare in 2025, representing a 61.695 percent increase from the €59,000 per hectare recorded in 2016 [3][4]. This translates to an average annual price increase of 5.5 percent over the decade, with 2025 alone showing an almost 12 percent surge [3][4]. Research conducted by Wageningen Social & Economic Research in collaboration with the Kadaster revealed that even after correcting for inflation, real land prices increased substantially between 2022 and 2025, rising by 5.5 percent annually with an 8.4 percent increase in 2025 [3][4]. The Kadaster attributed the continued price escalation to scarcity, strong business results in agriculture, and policy uncertainty that makes land appear as a relatively safe and strategic investment compared to more volatile options like livestock facilities or machinery [3]. Despite the high prices, 33,900 hectares of agricultural land changed ownership in 2025, representing a 7.4 percent increase from the previous year [4].

Nature Conservation Goals Fall Short

The urgency of the land use crisis becomes evident when examining Europe’s struggling nature conservation targets. In December 2025, Dutch provinces and the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Food Security and Nature announced that achieving the planned expansion of new nature areas had become practically unfeasible [5]. The Netherlands’ Natuurpact of 2013 aimed to add 80,000 hectares of new nature by the end of 2027 to enhance the Natuurnetwerk Nederland, but by the end of 2024, only 53,000 hectares had been realized, projecting a shortfall of 17,000 hectares [5]. The challenge of acquiring agricultural land for nature conservation was illustrated by the case of 85-year-old farmer Derk Kloppers from Voorstonden, whose 10.8-hectare farm was sold to another farmer with 200 cows instead of to Natuurmonumenten, despite the conservation organization’s efforts [5]. On January 28, 2026, Natuurmonumenten requested a new nature pact for the period after 2027 and urged politicians to allocate an additional €500 million over the next two years to meet conservation goals [5]. Wiebren Kuindersma, a nature policy researcher at Wageningen University, argued that voluntary approaches are insufficient: “If you as a government consider nature important, then you cannot avoid expropriation” [5].

Innovation and Regional Solutions Emerge

Recognizing that no single solution can address Europe’s diverse land use challenges, innovative regional approaches are taking shape across the continent. Elbersen emphasized this reality: “There is no one-size-fits-all solution for the dilemmas regarding European land use” [1][2]. The research suggests that EU policy should focus more strongly on regional differences, with better coordination between spatial planning, agricultural policy, nature restoration, climate policy, and migration policy [2]. In the Netherlands’ Veenkoloniën region, Stichting Innovatie Veenkoloniën has developed a comprehensive area program addressing water, soil, nitrogen, climate, and nature challenges through innovation at the Wageningen University & Research experimental farm in Valthermond [6]. The program includes research into new crops, techniques, and methods, while providing farmers with support through trial fields, study groups, demonstrations, and workshops [6]. Marleen de Rond from Stichting Innovatie Veenkoloniën explained the approach: “The alternative is that measures are devised from The Hague or a provincial government that are not specific to this area and just don’t fit. We want to put the farmer at the helm” [6]. Meanwhile, Gelderland province has implemented additional recovery measures around nitrogen-sensitive nature areas, aiming to increase nature-inclusive agriculture to 25 percent of the area surrounding Natura 2000 sites across 35,000 hectares [7].

Bronnen

sustainable agriculture land use optimization