Fire Researcher Reveals Every Extra Minute Increases Major Damage Risk by 1.2 Percent
Delft, Tuesday, 17 February 2026.
Vincent Oskam’s groundbreaking research at TU Delft shows response time isn’t everything in fire safety. His insurance data analysis reveals damage probability rises exponentially after 11 minutes, but building type and socioeconomic factors matter more than previously understood. Electric vehicle charging and outdated 1960s guidelines create new urban fire risks that traditional approaches can’t address effectively.
Modern Fire Risks Challenge Decades-Old Safety Guidelines
Vincent Oskam, a researcher at Rotterdam-Rijnmond Fire Service and PhD candidate at TU Delft, has identified critical gaps in current fire safety protocols that no longer align with modern urban realities [1]. The researcher’s analysis reveals that existing fire service guidelines were developed using insights from the 1960s and 1980s, creating a dangerous mismatch with today’s society [1]. Oskam notes that societal changes including new housing construction, the energy transition, and the proliferation of electric vehicles and devices requiring daily charging have fundamentally increased the complexity of fire service operations [1]. The emergence of electric vehicle charging infrastructure presents particular challenges, as these systems introduce fire risks that weren’t considered in legacy safety frameworks [1][2].
Socioeconomic Factors Create Uneven Fire Safety Landscape
Oskam’s research demonstrates that fire safety extends far beyond response times, with building characteristics and socioeconomic conditions playing decisive roles in fire outcomes [1]. His analysis shows that pre-war homes with wooden floors react dramatically differently to fire compared to modern homes with concrete floors and effective insulation systems [1]. More concerning, the research reveals that residents in vulnerable socioeconomic circumstances face disproportionately higher fire risks due to factors including limited resources for smoke alarm maintenance and higher likelihood of living alone [1]. While these areas may not experience the highest number of fires, Oskam found that when fires do occur in these neighborhoods, the consequences are consistently more severe [1]. This finding challenges traditional fire service resource allocation models that focus primarily on fire frequency rather than potential impact severity [1].
Data-Driven Simulation Model Transforms Fire Service Strategy
To address these complex urban fire safety challenges, Oskam is developing an innovative simulation model that calculates different fire scenarios to support more informed policymaking and resource deployment decisions [1][2]. The model specifically identifies areas with the highest fire risk potential and maps probable consequences, enabling fire services to allocate resources more strategically [1]. This simulation approach represents a fundamental shift from reactive fire response to proactive risk management, incorporating variables including building type, maintenance status, construction year, and socioeconomic indicators [2]. The system supports practical decision-making with robust data analysis and scientific methodologies, providing fire safety policymakers with evidence-based tools to improve urban fire prevention strategies [1].
Human Behavior Emerges as Critical Fire Safety Factor
Oskam’s research has identified human behavior as a primary contributor to house fires, with common practices like charging phones under pillows or leaving cooking unattended creating significant safety hazards [1]. The researcher emphasizes that residents themselves often make the most substantial difference in fire prevention, from safe charging practices to maintaining functional smoke detectors [2]. Small behavioral changes can have life-saving impacts, highlighting the importance of public education alongside technological and procedural improvements [2]. Oskam, who began working for the fire service eleven years ago in 2015, advocates for a comprehensive approach to fire safety that acknowledges the impossibility of eliminating fires entirely while working toward minimizing damage and casualties [1]. His vision centers on creating resilient urban environments where fire impact is systematically reduced through data-driven planning and community engagement [1][2].