ASML's Orders Fall Short Amid Tariff Uncertainties

2025-04-16 semicon

Veldhoven, Wednesday, 16 April 2025.
ASML reports first-quarter orders nearly a billion euros below expectations, citing tariff uncertainty as a contributing factor, affecting the semiconductor industry’s stability.

Financial Performance Overview

ASML, the Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer, reported net bookings of €3.94 billion for Q1 2025, significantly below the expected €4.89 billion forecast [1]. The company’s Q1 performance showed net sales of €7.74 billion and net profit of €2.36 billion, slightly missing revenue expectations but exceeding profit forecasts [2]. ASML maintains a substantial €35 billion order backlog, which typically provides stability, but current market conditions have created unprecedented uncertainty [3].

Tariff Impact and Market Response

CEO Christophe Fouquet acknowledged that recent tariff announcements are ‘creating a new uncertainty’ both macroeconomically and for market demands [4]. The situation has been further complicated by conflicting U.S. policy signals, including a temporary exemption for semiconductors from reciprocal duties, followed by contradictory statements about the electronics industry’s status [5]. This uncertainty has contributed to ASML’s shares declining by 6% [6].

Future Outlook and Industry Impact

Despite current challenges, ASML projects total net sales for 2025 to range between €30 billion and €35 billion [7]. The company’s long-term outlook remains optimistic, with projections for the semiconductor industry to surpass $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, driven primarily by AI applications [8]. However, analyst Ben Barringer from Quilter Cheviot warns that the impact of U.S. tariffs could be ‘widespread,’ though it’s currently too early to quantify the full effect [9].

Strategic Positioning and Shareholder Returns

ASML continues to demonstrate financial resilience, planning to declare a dividend of €6.40 per ordinary share for 2024, representing a 4.9% increase from 2023 [10]. The company has already repurchased approximately €2.7 billion worth of shares under its 2022-2025 buyback program [11]. However, management acknowledges that the current ‘dynamic’ environment requires careful monitoring, particularly regarding customer confidence and order patterns [12].

Bronnen

semiconductors tariff uncertainty