Wildfire Emissions 70% Higher Than Climate Models Predicted
Wageningen, Thursday, 8 January 2026.
New research reveals global wildfire emissions are nearly 70% higher than previously calculated, jumping from 2.0 to 3.4 gigatons of carbon annually—equivalent to 20% of fossil fuel emissions. Enhanced satellite technology detecting smaller fires in populated areas drove this dramatic revision, with significant implications for climate policy and carbon offset programs worldwide.
Breakthrough Satellite Technology Reveals Hidden Fire Activity
The groundbreaking findings emerged from a comprehensive study conducted by Wageningen University & Research in collaboration with NASA, BeZero Carbon, and universities in Maryland and California [1]. Published on January 7, 2026, the research represents a major advancement in wildfire monitoring capabilities that has fundamentally altered scientists’ understanding of global emissions patterns [1]. The key breakthrough came from dramatically improved satellite data resolution, which enhanced detection capabilities from 500-meter by 500-meter blocks to much more precise 20-meter by 20-meter blocks [1]. This technological leap enabled researchers to identify thousands of previously undetected smaller fires, particularly in populated areas where human activity intersects with natural landscapes.
Massive Upward Revision in Global Carbon Emissions
Lead researcher Guido van der Werf from Wageningen University explained the magnitude of the discovery: “Although our data has been refined over the years, our estimate of annual emissions has always been around 2.0 gigatons of carbon, or 20% of fossil fuel emissions. Now that’s almost 70% higher, around 3.4 gigatons” [1]. The research team’s calculations show that wildfire emissions increased by 70 percent compared to previous estimates [1]. This substantial revision means that wildfires now account for a significantly larger portion of global greenhouse gas emissions than climate models have been accounting for, with potential ramifications for international climate targets and carbon accounting frameworks.
Geographic Distribution and Environmental Impact Patterns
The study reveals distinct regional patterns in wildfire emissions across the globe. Savannas in Africa and Australia dominate the global wildfire emissions profile, accounting for approximately 70% of total emissions [1]. Meanwhile, deforestation areas in South America and Asia contribute about 10% of wildfire emissions, while boreal forests in North America and Siberia also account for roughly 10% [1]. Interestingly, while forest fires cause the most visible damage and receive significant media attention, their emissions levels remain relatively unchanged in the new database compared to previous versions, suggesting that the increase primarily stems from previously undetected smaller fires in other ecosystems [1]. The enhanced detection capabilities have particular significance for air quality in populated areas, where increased particulate matter and soot from these smaller fires directly impact human health [1].
Implications for Climate Policy and Carbon Markets
The findings carry profound implications for climate policy development and carbon offset calculations worldwide. The research has been incorporated into a new version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED), with results published in Nature Scientific Data [1]. As Harm Edens noted in the BNR Duurzaam podcast, “this research shows that the cause of that pollution is much larger and more complex than thought, and that can have consequences for how we should approach nature management and climate policy” [8]. The discovery comes at a critical time as researchers have observed that forest fires are becoming more frequent and intense over time, partly due to climate change [1]. The research team plans to investigate the interaction between climate change and wildfires in the coming years, which will provide crucial data for developing more effective mitigation strategies and improving fire management practices globally [1].