Europe Faces Critical Land Shortage as Agriculture Competes with Cities and Nature
Wageningen, Friday, 9 January 2026.
New Wageningen University research reveals Europe could lose over 8 million hectares of agricultural land by 2050 without policy changes, as farming competes intensely with urban expansion, nature restoration, and renewable energy projects. The comprehensive study, commissioned by the European Commission, analyzed all 27 EU member states and found no universal solution exists for land allocation dilemmas. Regional variations are stark—while Netherlands loses agricultural land fastest at 0.46% annually despite having 53% farmland coverage, Mediterranean regions battle between agriculture and tourism for water resources. The research demonstrates that transparent scenario planning could help farmers, governments, and citizens understand trade-offs between food production, biodiversity goals, and housing needs across different European regions.
Wageningen University Maps Europe’s Land Use Crisis
The groundbreaking research conducted by Wageningen University & Research and partners, commissioned by the European Commission’s Agriculture Directorate (DG Agriculture), analyzed land use patterns across all 27 EU member states down to the regional level [1]. The study linked historical land use data from past decades to scenarios extending to 2050, examining changes in agriculture, nature conservation, urban expansion, infrastructure development, and energy production as an integrated system [1]. Dr. Berien Elbersen, Senior Researcher in Land Use Changes and Environment at Wageningen University, emphasized the study’s comprehensive approach: “We calculated various scenarios, from ‘business as usual’ to a scenario in line with Green Deal and Farm-to-Fork ambitions. We looked at emissions, water quality, soil, pesticide use, land loss and production capacity. Precisely in that integral approach lies the great added value of this research, and the key for the future” [1].
Netherlands Leads Europe in Agricultural Land Loss Despite High Farming Coverage
Despite maintaining one of Europe’s highest proportions of agricultural land at 53 percent of total territory, the Netherlands experiences the continent’s fastest rate of green land conversion at 0.46 percent annually between 2018 and 2023 [3]. Only Ireland, Denmark, Hungary, and Romania maintain higher agricultural land percentages than the Netherlands, but these countries face significantly less spatial pressure due to lower population density, resulting in green land loss rates less than half of the Dutch figure [3]. The term ‘green land’ encompasses both natural areas and agricultural land, though in the Netherlands, the losses primarily affect farmland rather than natural spaces [3]. This pattern contrasts sharply with Scandinavian countries like Finland, Sweden, and Norway, where agricultural land percentages remain low and green land losses stay limited, typically involving forest areas rather than agricultural zones [3].
Regional Variations Expose No Universal Solutions
The Wageningen research reveals distinct regional challenges across Europe that demand tailored policy responses rather than one-size-fits-all solutions [1]. Intensive livestock farming in Northwest Europe, particularly in the Netherlands, Flanders, and Germany, generates ongoing debates about nitrogen emissions and water quality impacts [1]. Mediterranean coastal regions face intense competition between agriculture, nature conservation, urban growth, and tourism development for both land and water resources, with irrigation systems occupying relatively small areas while producing substantial agricultural output [1]. Meanwhile, regions including inland Spain and Eastern Europe confront the opposite challenge of agricultural land abandonment [1]. Dr. Elbersen noted that “there is no one-size-fits-all solution for the dilemmas regarding European land use,” advocating for EU policy that better addresses regional differences and improved coordination between spatial planning, agricultural policy, nature restoration, climate policy, and migration policy [1].
Economic Pressures Drive Agricultural Land Conversion
The scarcity of available space and growing housing demand force difficult choices about land allocation priorities [3]. Agriculture currently occupies more than half of the Netherlands’ total land surface, making the reallocation of portions of agricultural land appear inevitable [3]. Beyond creating physical space for housing construction, reducing agricultural activities also generates nitrogen emission space that enables further development projects [3]. Current agricultural land prices average €85,000 per hectare, reflecting the intense competition for scarce land resources [7]. The research indicates that scenarios extending to 2050 demonstrate how sustainable agriculture can contribute to biodiversity targets, climate objectives, and regional livability, though implementation requires transparent scenario planning that helps farmers, nature managers, regional governments, and citizens understand the gains and losses associated with specific location-based choices [1].